The announcement came on Monday, and as someone who has been covering the NBA draft for over a decade, I can tell you—it’s official. The buzz is real, and everyone from scouts to casual fans is asking the same question: Who will be the next number one pick? I’ve sat through countless Combine sessions, analyzed hours of game footage, and spoken with insiders who live and breathe this process. And while nothing in sports is ever a sure bet, this year’s draft class brings a level of excitement and uncertainty that we haven’t seen in a while. Let’s dive into the contenders, the stats, and my own predictions based on what I’ve observed firsthand.

Right now, if I had to put my money on one player, it would be Alexandre Sarr. The French big man has been turning heads with his versatility and defensive instincts. Standing at 7’1” with a wingspan just over 7’4”, he’s not just tall—he moves like a guard. I watched him during his time with the Perth Wildcats, and his ability to switch on defense and knock down mid-range jumpers is something you don’t often see in a player his size. Last season, he averaged 12.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game. Those numbers might not jump off the page, but his impact goes beyond the stat sheet. He alters shots, runs the floor in transition, and has shown flashes of playmaking that remind me of a young Chris Bosh. Still, he’s far from a finished product. His three-point shooting hovers around 31%, and he needs to add strength to handle NBA physicality. But in a league that values two-way big men, Sarr fits the mold perfectly.

Then there’s Zaccharie Risacher, another French prospect who’s been climbing draft boards. At 6’9”, he brings a smooth offensive game and a high basketball IQ. I’ve spoken with scouts who rave about his shooting mechanics—he shot nearly 39% from beyond the arc in the EuroCup this past season. What stands out to me is his maturity; he doesn’t force shots and makes smart decisions with the ball. But here’s where I get a little skeptical: his defensive consistency. I’ve seen games where he locks down opponents, and others where he gets lost on switches. If I’m a GM, that’s a red flag. Still, his upside is enormous, and some teams might value his offensive polish over Sarr’s defensive prowess.

Let’s not forget about Reed Sheppard out of Kentucky. I know, I know—taking a guard first overall is risky, but hear me out. Sheppard is the kind of player who makes everyone around him better. His college stats are eye-popping: 14.7 points, 5.2 assists, and a ridiculous 52% from three-point range. I watched him dismantle defenses with his vision and unselfishness, and his basketball IQ is off the charts. But here’s the catch: he’s undersized for an NBA two-guard at 6’2”, and his athleticism doesn’t jump out at you. In a draft loaded with frontcourt talent, I’m not sure he goes first, but I wouldn’t be shocked if a team falls in love with his intangibles. Personally, I think he’s a top-five lock, but number one? It’s a long shot.

Of course, there are wild cards like Donovan Clingan, the 7’2” center from UConn. He’s a traditional big who dominates the paint—averaging 13.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks last season. I love his rim protection, but in today’s NBA, centers need to do more than just defend the basket. His offensive game is limited, and he’s not the most mobile guy on the perimeter. Still, if a team like Charlotte or Portland ends up with the top pick, they might see him as a foundational piece. I’ve talked to executives who think he’s the safest pick in the draft, but I’m not convinced he has superstar potential.

So, where does that leave us? In my opinion, it’s Sarr’s spot to lose. His combination of size, skill, and defensive versatility gives him the edge, especially in a league that prioritizes switchable bigs. But let’s be real—the draft is unpredictable. Remember when Markelle Fultz went first over Jayson Tatum? Yeah, that still stings. This year, I’d give Sarr a 45% chance of going first, followed by Risacher at 30%, and Sheppard and Clingan splitting the rest. A lot can change between now and draft night, from workouts to interviews, but one thing’s for sure: the team that lands the top pick is getting a future star. And as someone who’s seen plenty of drafts come and go, I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.